Divisional Realignment

[animus]

Been a hot topic as of late, and was curious how y'all felt about realignment. 

I prefer a N/S with Miami in the N but I'd also be pleased if Louisville just took Maryland's spot. One thing I've learned just by reading divisional realignment threads is that no matter how its aligned, a fan base or two will feel shafted. 

[Ken D]

I'm not entirely convinced that conference realignment is over, so I suspect any divisional realignment would be short lived anyway. I don't think any of the power conferences started this process thinking the end result would be three conferences stuck with an awkward number like 14 members. But now, exit fees and grant of media rights deals seem to have everybody boxed in to a status quo that doesn't make much sense.

The problem is that there don't seem to be any more schools attractive enough to justify slicing the TV and bowl pie any further if the only motive is to fix divisional scheduling. There are only two schools that could fill that bill - Notre Dame and BYU. BYU fits the PAC 12 geographically, but unless somebody were to exit, 13 teams is even worse than 14.

IMO, the only conference that has a decent chance to get to 16 teams (with good choices) is the Big TEN. The way I could see them getting there is by finally convincing Notre Dame to come on board and convincing the existing members who resent ND's past refusals to join to swallow their pride. That move could be enough to get Missouri to leave the SEC, which is the only power conference with no exit fee penalty. Both of those schools add significant value to the B1G network and TV package.

Any conference that gets to 16 schools can abandon divisions and move to a pod scheduling model. Here, each school is partnered within a four team pod which plays each other every year. Then each school plays half of the teams in each of the other three pods in one year, and the other half the next year. That model preserves most rivalries, and insures every school visits every other member at least once every four years.

For the ACC, if they could get ND to commit fully to all sports membership, they could consider adding a football only member (like Navy) with a less than full sharing of revenues, or reluctantly allow UConn to join the party (which they would accept in an instant).

But if we stay at 14, some change is going to be necessary in scheduling eventually.

A wild card here is the NCAA playoff. How long will schools be able to resist growing the playoff to 8 teams? If they were to do that by replacing conference championship games with a quarterfinal playoff round (five power conference champions and three wild cards), there is no longer any rationale for having divisions.

But no matter what happens, somebody won't be happy.

[Ken D]

Another possibility I can foresee happening could change the calculus for everybody. As of now, most FBS schools are in a conference that has a championship game. It's hard for the NCAA to argue that adding a 13th regular season game would make the season too long. If it's not too long for the teams in a championship game, why would it be for anyone else?

Dropping the championship game in exchange for giving every school another regular season game probably makes financial sense for most conferences, if not all. More often than not, the championship games haven't pitted the two best teams from their conferences anyway. If selection for the championship tourney is going to be by committee, and not determined by conference championships, schools with NC aspirations may prefer not to be put at risk of losing their chance to another conference rival.

A 13th game makes 9-game league schedules much more palatable, and some might even consider a 10 game schedule for home-away balance and added TV inventory.

This is all still very much in flux, IMO.

[animus]

I think a 13th game is very possible. Also think a four game conference playoff is possible.

Conference realignment is over for the short term. Once we get to 2021-25 is when we'll see a massive realignment again. Around that time frame is when it'll be easier to pull Texas from the B12 and FSU from the ACC.

[Ken D]

Dec 31, 2013 14:16:04 GMT -5 animus said:

I think a 13th game is very possible. Also think a four game conference playoff is possible.

Conference realignment is over for the short term. Once we get to 2021-25 is when we'll see a massive realignment again. Around that time frame is when it'll be easier to pull Texas from the B12 and FSU from the ACC.

Do you expect that the B1G, SEC and ACC will all be content to stay at 14 members for 7-10 years? I don't. I believe there is already political jockeying to snatch two of football's crown jewels before the other conferences can. They are two programs that can afford whatever short term price they would have to pay if the right deal comes along. It only takes one domino to fall to put everything in motion once again - if it's the right domino.

To me, Texas is that domino. If the B1G could land that fish, they could use it as bait to try and close the deal with the other crown jewel, Notre Dame.

The loss of Texas would once again put the Big XII at risk of imploding. The SEC may feel the need to retaliate against such a bold move by the B1G by going after Oklahoma and Kansas, allowing them to shift both Alabama and Auburn to their eastern division for balance. At that point, the remnants of the Big XII wouldn't qualify for major conference status, and every school would be scrambling to find a home in either the PAC or the ACC.

It's a long shot, to be sure. But stranger things have happened. I just think the problems of having an awkward number like 14 teams will keep conferences exploring alternatives.

[animus]

The problem w/ getting Texas out of the B12 is that the B12 owns their media rights. You'll probably need the members of the B12 to dissolve the conference for Texas & others to leave. Finding soft landing spots for the members of the league could do that vary trick. I see the B12 jumping to 12 again as the next chip to fall.

While Conferences want Notre Dame, I don't see them joining a conference until the other chips fall. Notre Dame has long stated they won't join a conference unless they're forced due to the landscape. It would take a lot of concessions to get Notre Dame to jump in the next 2-3 years and I don't see the B1G making any concessions. ACC maybe, but not the B1G.

I do agree that 14 is a very odd number and can see members within those getting impatient. And I agree that those conferences won't be content at 14. Just pulling the big fish will be a harder task than imagined.

[Marty Da Hungry Wolf]

ACC has Notre Dame for everything "but" football, right? That makes the ACC 15 schools once Louisville comes in next school year? Keep seeing Navy and UConn mentioned as possible 16th members, I don't agree the ACC should add Navy as football-only. You're either all in or you're out, Notre Dame notwithstanding. I believe it will eventually get to the point where Notre Dame is all in, them making it to the BCS title game last season was an anomaly, they're not what they once were.

[Ken D]

Jan 1, 2014 12:12:42 GMT -5 Marty Da Hungry Wolf said:

ACC has Notre Dame for everything "but" football, right? That makes the ACC 15 schools once Louisville comes in next school year? Keep seeing Navy and UConn mentioned as possible 16th members, I don't agree the ACC should add Navy as football-only. You're either all in or you're out, Notre Dame notwithstanding. I believe it will eventually get to the point where Notre Dame is all in, them making it to the BCS title game last season was an anomaly, they're not what they once were.

I wonder if adding a 13th regular season game could push Notre Dame over the top toward full membership in the ACC. If Navy were to become a 16th member for football only (leaving the league at 16 teams for both football and basketball), they could be put in a scheduling pod with ND and Pitt. Since ND already plays Navy OOC every year, having them as a conference opponent would free them up to continue their long-standing OOC rivalries with USC, Michigan/Michigan State and Purdue.