Triangle ACC predictions

[Ken D]

OK, guys. We've seen the schedules, and we've seen the rosters. Anybody ready to make some bold predictions?

I'll start with NC State. They couldn't have hoped for a better schedule in a transition year, especially with question marks competing for the QB job. (I think Mitchell gets the nod). Only four road games, and that includes Wake Forest and Duke. So they only have to fly twice (BC and FSU).

I think State could be favored in as many as 9 games. They will probably be underdogs at home against Clemson and Carolina, and away against the Seminoles. But I don't think they will win all the games they are favored in - they never do, somehow. I think 7 wins is a lock, 8 wins is 50-50 and 9 wins a real long shot.

Most likely upset losses - Maryland and East Carolina.

Most likely upset win - Carolina.

[Ken D]

Carolina also has a pretty good schedule, and they aren't in transition. You'd think that would make them more predictable, but when has Triangle football ever been predictable?

I think Carolina only has one game on the schedule that most fans would be surprised if they won - their opener against South Carolina. But they have, IMO, four games that are at best tossups at this point - @ga Tech, @vatech, Miami at home and @state (though I think they will be a slight betting favorite in this one).

I see the Heels as slight favorites at Home against ECU, Duke and Virginia, and on the road at Pitt.

Only Middle Tennessee and Old Dominion are pure locks.

I see Carolina getting 8 wins (they have finished with 8 four of the past five seasons). Nine wins is a stretch, and 7 would be disappointing given their offensive firepower. Less than that and Fedora would already be on the hot seat.

[Ken D]

Duke finally got smart with their non-conference scheduling. No more Alabamas. I'm going to spot them 4-0 against NC Central, Troy and Navy at home and Memphis on the road.

After that, I don't see a sure win in the ACC. They should be competitive in almost every game, and it's possible they could be favored against Wake Forest, Pitt or Virginia. Plus they have a history of playing State tough. But I don't see better than 2-6 in the league, leaving them still with a shot at a second straight bowl game and a chance at a winning season for the first time in years.

[Tizu]

Pretty good assessments, Ken. I think you're spot on with NCSU and UNC. The Duke one is tough, even for me. I want so badly for them to do well, I think they certainly have the offense to hang with almost anybody in the league (aside from Clemson and FSU). Their defense is what has been very weak but they have made vast improvements in recruiting for defense. We'll just have to wait and see what improvements, if any, have been made and if they can actually stop a team from converting those long plays.

I give Duke a strong chance at going to another bowl. I'm not big on predictions as they almost always go the other way...however, I'll go out on a limb and say they win 7...maybe 8 games this year. I think it's possible they get UVA, WFU, Pitt and a possible win at UNC.

It won't be easy, it'll be brutal, but I believe barring injuries, they've got a good chance at it.

[Ken D]

Aug 6, 2013 13:21:44 GMT -5 Tizu said:

Pretty good assessments, Ken. I think you're spot on with NCSU and UNC. The Duke one is tough, even for me. I want so badly for them to do well, I think they certainly have the offense to hang with almost anybody in the league (aside from Clemson and FSU). Their defense is what has been very weak but they have made vast improvements in recruiting for defense. We'll just have to wait and see what improvements, if any, have been made and if they can actually stop a team from converting those long plays.

I give Duke a strong chance at going to another bowl. I'm not big on predictions as they almost always go the other way...however, I'll go out on a limb and say they win 7...maybe 8 games this year. I think it's possible they get UVA, WFU, Pitt and a possible win at UNC.

It won't be easy, it'll be brutal, but I believe barring injuries, they've got a good chance at it.

I'm surprised you didn't mention State as a possible win for Duke. They are, I think, fortunate that their two non-division ACC games are at home against State and at Wake. They could have done a lot worse. If you give them an undefeated non-conference slate, they just have to split their conference games to get to 8 wins. While they are picked by most pundits to finish near the bottom of the Coastal division, I don't see a single Coastal team they couldn't beat on a good day. I also don't see anybody who couldn't beat them.

This could be one of those years where a couple of strange bounces could make a huge difference. Nobody can afford to sleep on Duke this year.

[Marty Da Hungry Wolf]

My only hope is to see the PROGRAM at State make progress, not just the team on the field. Let's see where State's at after this season, then after years 3 then 5 under Coach Doeren. Cautiously cautious right now about the Pack, nothing from 4-9 wins would really surprise me; I truly don't know what to expect. Maybe that's a good thing.

[Tizu]

Ken,

I do think State is a possible win...I think ALL the games are "possible wins". I chose the ones which I think they have a better chance (probable?) to win. If they stay healthy and Boone / Connette are on their game, I don't see them having a 'bad' year this year. I see another bowl for sure. All I can ask for is improvement over last year. Improvement would entail going to a bowl game and winning it. I'll take it. It's taking some time to get what I would call decent recruits at Duke, so naturally it will take them longer to get the program as a whole on track as it was so dismal for so long.

Steady improvements, fans in the stands, then facility upgrades should go a long way in helping that.

[Ken D]

Aug 7, 2013 6:42:52 GMT -5 Tizu said:

Ken,

I do think State is a possible win...I think ALL the games are "possible wins". I chose the ones which I think they have a better chance (probable?) to win. If they stay healthy and Boone / Connette are on their game, I don't see them having a 'bad' year this year. I see another bowl for sure. All I can ask for is improvement over last year. Improvement would entail going to a bowl game and winning it. I'll take it. It's taking some time to get what I would call decent recruits at Duke, so naturally it will take them longer to get the program as a whole on track as it was so dismal for so long.

Steady improvements, fans in the stands, then facility upgrades should go a long way in helping that.

Fans in the stands would make a big difference. High school kids want to play in front of big crowds. It has to be a bit embarrassing when they bring recruits to Wallace Wade and the stands are half empty. Last year, the only BCS conference school with lower attendance than Duke was Temple. It's no coincidence the Owls were left without a chair when the realignment music stopped and the Big East was relegated to second tier status. Even Army averaged more fans than Duke.

[Tizu]

Aug 7, 2013 8:29:30 GMT -5 Ken D said:

Aug 7, 2013 6:42:52 GMT -5 Tizu said:

Ken,

I do think State is a possible win...I think ALL the games are "possible wins". I chose the ones which I think they have a better chance (probable?) to win. If they stay healthy and Boone / Connette are on their game, I don't see them having a 'bad' year this year. I see another bowl for sure. All I can ask for is improvement over last year. Improvement would entail going to a bowl game and winning it. I'll take it. It's taking some time to get what I would call decent recruits at Duke, so naturally it will take them longer to get the program as a whole on track as it was so dismal for so long.

Steady improvements, fans in the stands, then facility upgrades should go a long way in helping that.

Fans in the stands would make a big difference. High school kids want to play in front of big crowds. It has to be a bit embarrassing when they bring recruits to Wallace Wade and the stands are half empty. Last year, the only BCS conference school with lower attendance than Duke was Temple. It's no coincidence the Owls were left without a chair when the realignment music stopped and the Big East was relegated to second tier status. Even Army averaged more fans than Duke.

Sad, really. Actually, it's pretty pathetic.

[Marty Da Hungry Wolf]

Win and they will come.

[Tizu]

Aug 7, 2013 19:54:11 GMT -5 Marty Da Hungry Wolf said:

Win and they will come.

I agree with that, Marty.

I hope two of the 3 Triangle teams do well...I don't care so much about the baby blue boys.